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Master Bayesian Inference through Practical Examples and Computation–Without Advanced Mathematical Analysis
Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power.
Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention.
Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You’ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you’ve mastered these techniques, you’ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects.
• Learning the Bayesian “state of mind” and its practical implications
• Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference
• Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses
• Building and debugging models with PyMC
• Testing your model’s “goodness of fit”
• Opening the “black box” of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works
• Leveraging the power of the “Law of Large Numbers”
• Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning
• Using loss functions to measure an estimate’s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes
• Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size
• Overcoming the “exploration versus exploitation” dilemma: deciding when “pretty good” is good enough
• Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing
• Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available
Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.
Book by Lind Douglas Marchal William Wathen Samuel
The United States arrests, punishes, and locks up far more people-both juveniles and adults-than any other democratic country in the world. Indeed, despite the fact that the U.S holds 5 percent of the world's population, it contains 25 percent of its prisoners. These individuals not only constitute a disproportionately large group, but also suffer decreased employment opportunities and housing discrimination after their release, making a return to prison all the more likely. Headlines of articles in US media allude to "Prison Without Punishment" in Germany and "Radical Humaneness" in Norway, but why are prison conditions in those countries so notably less bleak than those here? And when recidivism rates are lower in countries with these kinder, gentler prisons than in America, why do prisons here remain so harsh? In Unusually Cruel, Mark Morje Howard argues that the United States' prison system is exceptional--in a truly shameful way. Due to its exceptional nature, most scholars have focused on the internal dynamics that have produced the US' unusually large and severe prison system. Howard conducts a comparative analysis as a corrective to this myopia, demonstrating just how far the US lies outside of the norm of established democracies in this regard. He uses a new methodology in order to put American incarceration rates in perspective. The book compares data from 21 countries-all advanced industrialized societies, liberal democracies, and OECD members-ultimately showing that the US holds more than three times the number of incarcerated people of its closest competitor, New Zealand. This method reveals interesting findings, including that, although the female incarceration rate is only a fraction of the male incarceration in America, the US imprisons more than five times as many women as any other comparable country. And strikingly, while crime rates are roughly equal among countries in the western world, the US incarceration rate is seven times the average rate of European countries. Howard shows that in every measure of punitiveness-including policing, sentencing, prison conditions, and rehabilitation-US policies are harsher, producing worse individual outcomes and lower public safety, than those of any comparable country. The book does not merely paint a grim picture, however. Unusually Cruel also identifies solutions that are less punishing and more productive, arguing that, by learning from models that have worked elsewhere, the US can get out of its criminal justice quagmire.
Deep Waters: Courage Character and the Lake Timiskaming Canoeing Tragedy a été écrit par James Raffan qui connu comme un auteur et ont écrit beaucoup de livres intéressants avec une grande narration. Deep Waters: Courage Character and the Lake Timiskaming Canoeing Tragedy a été l'un des livres de populer sur 2019. Il contient pages. Ce livre a été très surpris en raison de sa note top et a obtenu environ best avis des utilisateurs. Donc, après avoir terminé la lecture de ce livre, je recommande aux lecteurs de ne pas sous-estimer ce grand livre. Vous devez prendre Deep Waters: Courage Character and the Lake Timiskaming Canoeing Tragedy que votre liste de lecture ou vous serez regretter parce que vous ne l'avez pas lu encore dans votre vie.
In her third collection of poetry, Viper Rum, Mary Karr delves into autobiographical subject matter; various beloveds are birthed and buried in these touching lyrics, some of which, as the title suggests, deal with drink:
I cast back to those last years
I drank, alone nights at the kitchen sink,
bathrobed, my head hatching snakes,
while my baby slept in his upstairs cage
and my marriage choked to death
Precise and surprising, Karr's poems "take on the bedevilments of fate and grief with a diabolical edge of their own" (Poetry).
Also included is Karr's controversial and prize-winning essay "Against Decoration," in which she took aim against the verbal ornaments that too often pass for poetry these days-the "new formalism" that elevates form to an end itself.
In the last twenty years, reception studies have significantly enhanced our understanding of the ways in which Classics has shaped modern Western culture, but very little attention has been directed toward the reception of classical architecture. Housing the New Romans: Architectual Reception and Classical Style in the Modern World addresses this gap by investigating ways in which appropriation and allusion facilitated the reception of Classical Greece and Rome through the requisition and redeployment of classicizing tropes to create neo-Antique sites of "dwelling" in the 19th and early 20th centuries. The volume, across nine essays, will cover both European and American iterations of place making, including Sir John Soanes' house in London, the Hotel de Beauharnais in Paris, and the Getty Villa in California. By focusing on structures and places that are oriented towards private life-houses, hotels, clubs, tombs, and gardens -- the volume directs the critical gaze towards diverse and complex sites of curatorial self-fashioning. The goal of the volume is to provide a multiplicity of interpretative frameworks (e.g. object-agency enchantment, hyperreality, memory-infrastructure) that may be applied to the study of architectural reception. This critical approach makes Housing the New Romans the first work of its kind in the emerging field of architectural and landscape reception studies and in the hitherto textually dominated field of classical reception.
The green movement has got it very wrong. Nature no longer controls our planet - it is humanity, `the god species', that must save the environment we have inflicted unprecedented damage upon. And the tools we must use are the very technologies that environmentalist have told us for years will spell disaster: nuclear power, GM food and geo-engineering. In this blistering and urgent manifesto, Mark Lynas identifies a new future for the green movement and an entirely fresh agenda for how we will save the Earth, and ourselves.
Report on Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in England and Wales 1973-75 a été écrit par Department of Health and Social Security qui connu comme un auteur et ont écrit beaucoup de livres intéressants avec une grande narration. Report on Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in England and Wales 1973-75 a été l'un des livres de populer sur 2019. Il contient 172 pages. Ce livre a été très surpris en raison de sa note top et a obtenu environ best avis des utilisateurs. Donc, après avoir terminé la lecture de ce livre, je recommande aux lecteurs de ne pas sous-estimer ce grand livre. Vous devez prendre Report on Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in England and Wales 1973-75 que votre liste de lecture ou vous serez regretter parce que vous ne l'avez pas lu encore dans votre vie.
Note: This is the loose-leaf version of Content Area Reading and does not include access to the Enhanced Pearson eText. To order the Enhanced Pearson eText packaged with the loose-leaf version, use ISBN 0134068823.Widely popular as an undergraduate and graduate text and a valuable in-service resource, Content Area Reading shows pre- and in-service content area teachers how to use literacy-related instructional strategies to help students think and learn with all kinds of print and digital texts. As in previous editions, the emphasis is on the comprehensive content, including an ever-expanding knowledge base in the areas of literacy, cognition and learning, educational policy, new literacies and technologies, and student diversity. This edition updates readers with current theory, research, and practices related to content literacy and learning in disciplines. Throughout it includes a renewed focus on writing across the content areas, with emphasis on strategies for online writing and multimodal learning; new disciplinary literacy boxes throughout, new Voices from the Field boxes and new instructional strategy examples replacing those in older editions; updated content and references reflecting current developments in literacy education and content area reading; a new Key Learning Outcomes feature at the beginning of each chapter, and a new Check Your Understanding feature at the end of each chapter. A major update of Chapter 2, Learning with New Literacies, includes strategies to engage and empower multimodal learning across the curriculum. The Enhanced Pearson eText features embedded videos and assessments. Improve mastery and retention with the Enhanced Pearson eText*
The Enhanced Pearson eText provides a rich, interactive learning environment designed to improve student mastery of content. The Enhanced Pearson eText is:
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Principles of Electronic Communication Systems: Laboratory Manual a été écrit par David L. Heiserman qui connu comme un auteur et ont écrit beaucoup de livres intéressants avec une grande narration. Principles of Electronic Communication Systems: Laboratory Manual a été l'un des livres de populer sur 2019. Il contient pages. Ce livre a été très surpris en raison de sa note top et a obtenu environ best avis des utilisateurs. Donc, après avoir terminé la lecture de ce livre, je recommande aux lecteurs de ne pas sous-estimer ce grand livre. Vous devez prendre Principles of Electronic Communication Systems: Laboratory Manual que votre liste de lecture ou vous serez regretter parce que vous ne l'avez pas lu encore dans votre vie.
Pour ch?ur mixte a cappellaTitres separes :Margoton va t' a l' iau ? La Belle se sied au pied de la tour ? Pilons l' orge ? C' est la p' tite fille du prince ? Ah ! Mon beau laboureur ? Les Tisserands
This manual contains completely worked-out solutions for all the odd-numbered exercises in the text.
Collins Primary Science fully meets the requirements of the Cambridge International Examinations Primary Science Curriculum Framework, and the material has been carefully developed to meet the needs of primary science students and teachers in a range of international contexts.
Content is organized according to the three main strands: Biology, Chemistry, and Physics, and the skills detailed under the Scientific Enquiry strand are introduced and taught in the context of those areas.
For each of Stages 1 to 6 as detailed in the Cambridge Primary Science Framework, this book offers:
- A full color, highly illustrated, and photograph rich Student's Book;
- A write-in Workbook linked to the Student's Book;
- This comprehensive Teacher's Guide with clear suggestions for using the materials, including the electronic components of the course; and
- A DVD-ROM which contains slideshows, video clips, additional photographs, and interactive activities for use in the classroom.
The Evolution of Human Sexuality a été écrit par Donald Symons qui connu comme un auteur et ont écrit beaucoup de livres intéressants avec une grande narration. The Evolution of Human Sexuality a été l'un des livres de populer sur 2019. Il contient 368 pages. Ce livre a été très surpris en raison de sa note top et a obtenu environ best avis des utilisateurs. Donc, après avoir terminé la lecture de ce livre, je recommande aux lecteurs de ne pas sous-estimer ce grand livre. Vous devez prendre The Evolution of Human Sexuality que votre liste de lecture ou vous serez regretter parce que vous ne l'avez pas lu encore dans votre vie.
Handbook of Marine Mammals: Seals a été écrit par Array qui connu comme un auteur et ont écrit beaucoup de livres intéressants avec une grande narration. Handbook of Marine Mammals: Seals a été l'un des livres de populer sur 2019. Il contient 359 pages. Ce livre a été très surpris en raison de sa note top et a obtenu environ best avis des utilisateurs. Donc, après avoir terminé la lecture de ce livre, je recommande aux lecteurs de ne pas sous-estimer ce grand livre. Vous devez prendre Handbook of Marine Mammals: Seals que votre liste de lecture ou vous serez regretter parce que vous ne l'avez pas lu encore dans votre vie.
Afrocentrism has been a controversial but popular movement in schools and universities across America, as well as in black communities. But in We Can't Go Home Again, historian Clarence E. Walker puts Afrocentrism to the acid test, in a thoughtful, passionate, and often blisteringly funny analysis that melts away the pretensions of this "therapeutic mythology." As expounded by Molefi Kete Asante, Yosef Ben-Jochannan, and others, Afrocentrism encourages black Americans to discard their recent history, with its inescapable white presence, and to embrace instead an empowering vision of their African (specifically Egyptian) ancestors as the source of western civilization. Walker marshals a phalanx of serious scholarship to rout these ideas. He shows, for instance, that ancient Egyptian society was not black but a melange of ethnic groups, and questions whether, in any case, the pharaonic regime offers a model for blacks today, asking "if everybody was a King, who built the pyramids?" But for Walker, Afrocentrism is more than simply bad history--it substitutes a feel-good myth of the past for an attempt to grapple with the problems that still confront blacks in a racist society. The modern American black identity is the product of centuries of real history, as Africans and their descendants created new, hybrid cultures--mixing many African ethnic influences with native and European elements. Afrocentrism replaces this complex history with a dubious claim to distant glory. "Afrocentrism offers not an empowering understanding of black Americans' past," Walker concludes, "but a pastiche of 'alien traditions' held together by simplistic fantasies." More to the point, this specious history denies to black Americans the dignity, and power, that springs from an honest understanding of their real history.
Rep CD Data Acquisition Techniques Using Pcs a été écrit par Aurterlitz qui connu comme un auteur et ont écrit beaucoup de livres intéressants avec une grande narration. Rep CD Data Acquisition Techniques Using Pcs a été l'un des livres de populer sur 2019. Il contient pages. Ce livre a été très surpris en raison de sa note top et a obtenu environ best avis des utilisateurs. Donc, après avoir terminé la lecture de ce livre, je recommande aux lecteurs de ne pas sous-estimer ce grand livre. Vous devez prendre Rep CD Data Acquisition Techniques Using Pcs que votre liste de lecture ou vous serez regretter parce que vous ne l'avez pas lu encore dans votre vie.
Written around the thirteenth century AD by Icelandic monks, the seven tales collected here offer a combination of pagan elements tightly woven into the pattern of Christian ethics. They take as their subjects figures who are heroic, but do not fit into the mould of traditional heroes. Some stories concern characters in Iceland - among them Hrafknel's Saga, in which a poor man's son is murdered by his powerful neighbour, and Thorstein the Staff-Struck, which describes an ageing warrior's struggle to settle into a peaceful rural community. Others focus on the adventures of Icelanders abroad, including the compelling Audun's Story, which depicts a farmhand's pilgrimage to Rome. These fascinating tales deal with powerful human emotions, suffering and dignity at a time of profound transition, when traditional ideals were gradually yielding to a more peaceful pastoral lifestyle.
In the autumn of 1968, Donald Crowhurst set sail from England to participate in the first single-handed nonstop around-the-world sailboat race. Eight months later, his boat was found in the mid-Atlantic, intact but with no one on board. In this gripping reconstruction, journalists Nicholas Tomalin and Ron Hall tell the story of Crowhurst's ill-fated voyage, up to his apparent decision to take his own life rather than be discovered as the would-be perpetrator of one of the biggest hoaxes in sailing history.
Yearbook of Experts -- Started in 1984 as the Talk Show Guest Directory